THE NEW WORLD ORDER BUILT BY CHINA
The United States has often hit companies in many countries that have failed to comply with the embargoes they have been using on the grounds that they use US clearing houses even when they were outside the United States and as part of the United States. international laws. In order to avoid these extraterritorial laws, countries must acquire, as indicated in the first chapter, six instruments: a global currency with clearing houses independent of the United States, rating agencies, stock exchanges. first, powerful domestic investors, shipping companies and national semiconductor production. This is precisely what China has done. China started to create an international alternative payment system in 2019 to the US-dominated system using three currencies: the yuan, the euro and the ruble. This system, using Chinese technology and the most sophisticated encryption, operated outside the Swift system of interbank transactions that the United States had instrumentalised in the service of their national interests. It was used mainly by China, Russia, Iran and North Korea but also by many European and American companies! China had launched in 2018 commodity contracts in yuan and then in 2019-2020 generalized the quotations of oil and raw materials in yuan but also in euros at the request of energy and commodity exporting countries that preferred to be paid in this last currency.
The European Union created a credit rating agency in Paris in 2019, in connection with the arrival of the European Banking Authority in that city, in order to meet the expectations of emerging countries, China, Russia and from India, which no longer supported the arrogance of the Trumpian Administration. The Chinese and Russians were increasingly appealing to the big European shipping companies to have no connection with the United States in their international trade. These companies had developed specific shipping lines that never made stops in the United States. All invoices were in euros in the Chinese interbank system.
But it was in the production of semiconductors that China concentrated its resources. In particular, she developed ultra-powerful semiconductors for artificial intelligence applications and autonomous cars, including drawing on designs of these 5G semiconductors stolen from Taiwan and South Korea. These semiconductors were used not only by Asian but also European and American automakers because they were cheap, receiving massive subsidies from the Chinese government in the form of unpaid loans. In order to organize this set of initiatives, in November 2019, China created a Global Infrastructure System (GIS) to promote the launching and financing of major projects related to the Belt and Road Initiative (BIS), giving China has privileged access to all countries willing to host Chinese infrastructure projects in Asia, Europe and Africa. IMS had promoted governance standards based on Chinese law and the idea that the interests of governments, be they centrally managed or market-driven, took precedence over those of corporations and individuals. China was seeking to establish a new global rule of law based on scientific, technical, financial and legal systems independent of the international order built by the Americans for seven decades after the Second World War. On many issues relating to human rights and the rights of private investors, this rule of law was unclear and its rules adaptable to always favor Chinese interests. The United States tried to limit the appeal of this new system of governance, but they struggled to attack the vices, which had abused the extraterritoriality of their laws, torn apart the major international agreements they had themselves negotiated in an international framework, or blocked the operation of the WTO dispute settlement body. In fact, Donald Trump had largely contributed to the emergence of this new world order, based on China, with the complicity of the Congress, which had let him do it and had never given the impression of understanding what was in China had also benefited from a keen ear of former US allies who were tired of being slapped by Trump.China’s voluntarist policy had not allowed the creation of an Alliance of Free Nations, and America’s former allies had finally yielded to the Chinese sirens since 2019, despite the visible hardening of the Chinese dictatorship. The United States lost a captive battle by mocking the rule of law and martyring their friends.
BREAK OF EURO ZONE
To understand the effect of bad decisions, we must project ourselves in time. To measure the weaknesses of an institutional system, we must do the same. Since nothing significant occurred in the institutional organization of the euro area in 2018-2019, and under the effect of the hardening of the trade war between China and the United States at the same time, the growth of global economy had risen from 3.7% in 2018 to 2.6% in 2019, instead of the 3.9% forecast for these two years by the IMF in July 2018. Especially, in a new revision of the outlook for In 2020, the IMF announced at the end of January 2020 that growth would not exceed 1.2% that year for the world, 0.8% for the United States and -1% for the euro area. In Italy, GDP would fall by 3% and unemployment would exceed 13.7%. GDP is expected to decline by only 1.2% in Spain and 0.4% in France. The unemployment rate in the euro area would be 11.4% in 2020 and 13.2% in 2021. The interest rate differential on the 10-year public debt, with reference to the German debt and in percentage points, would reach 4.7 points for Spain and 7.1 points for Italy in the spring of 2020. And then everything exploded in February 2020 in the financial world. All southern euro-zone countries announced the reinstatement of exchange controls on February 10, 2020. Then on February 14, Italy suspended repayment of its public debt. It was followed by all other eurozone countries except Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Austria. The euro dropped to $ 0.92. Then everything exploded politically in March 2020. The four previously named countries left the Eurozone to form the euromark, which was immediately above $ 1.3 while the euro of the fifteen countries remaining in the zone fell to $ 0.70. Trade barriers between the euromark zone and the eurozone were established in June and trade flows between the two zones fell by one-third in the six months that followed. The Central Bank of the euro zone moved from Frankfurt to Paris by a general agreement, a rigorous Spanish was appointed at its head in March 2020, which contributed to the rise of the euro to 0.85 dollar. All eurozone countries outside Italy announced the resumption of debt service in April 2020. A drastic restructuring of Italy (public debt, public services, constitutional system, etc.), worse than that of Greece, intervened quickly. The unemployment rate in Italy is 19.2% and the pogroms against immigrants have already caused thousands of deaths. The explosion of the euro zone has greatly aggravated the international situation and the trade war has redoubled. International trade in value fell by 27% from 2018 to 2021.
SCENARIO OF TRIGGERING CONFLICT BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES
After the series of economic clashes on the Iranian trade and the JCPOA agreement reached by all US allies in 2018-2020, Donald Trump’s re-election in November 2020 was the straw that broke the camel’s back. The successive cracks in NATO on Ukrainian and Turkish questions and on the future of Syria and Iraq, while Trump had repeated in campaign that the fate of Europe was solely in his hands, led to a reaffirmation of the desire to build an autonomous independent military capability from France, and to a lesser extent from Italy and Spain. Germany, which had defeated the creation of the E15 Core in 2019, was increasing its defense effort too late, while Poland was trying to reach an agreement with the United States to protect against a possible Russian invasion.
Despite the disunity of the Europeans, the United States retained some allies, including the United Kingdom and France, which Trump had largely spared. Xi Jinping, who was nearing the end of his second presidential term, scheduled for March 2023, was facing a slowdown in the Chinese economy, whose growth rate rose from 6.5 percent in 2018 to 4.2 percent. in 2020 and 3.8% in 2021, then to 1.7% for the year 2022. The trade sanctions imposed by Trump in 2018 had a higher impact than originally planned. To meet the commitments made in the trade agreement between China and the United States to limit the recessionary effects of the US trade war, China’s steel production capacity was reduced by 18% and % from the autumn of 2019 to the spring of 2021. The result was an increase in unemployment which enraged the Chinese provinces. Above all, the collapse of international trade in 2020-21 had put Asia on its knees. Since then, ultra-nationalist movements have taken power everywhere. In order to maintain the unity of the Chinese Communist Party, whose various factions repressed since 2014-2015 – with a clear hardening in 2018-2019 – gave voice, Xi had raised the tone against Taiwan and multiplied the maneuvers in the Strait of Taiwan in 2020 and early 2021. In April 2021, Xi had personally attended a giant naval exercise, two and a half times larger than that of April 2018, which seemed to prelude the invasion of the island. Despite American warnings, activity in the Strait had not weakened until June. Then the intensity of the conflict seemed to be reduced during the summer and autumn of 2021. But the proliferation of strikes and unrest on the Chinese territory in the spring of 2022 – world GDP fell by 0.1% in 2021 and 0, 9% in 2022, in connection with the collapse of international trade – heightened pressure on Xi in the Chinese Communist Party. A contestation of Xi’s thinking became more and more virulent4. Xi tried to regain control of the CCP by creating a diversion. On September 25, 2022, a gigantic Chinese armada, supported by 800 air force fighters, rushed off the Chinese coast towards Hsinchu and Kaohsiung. Despite US warnings, and after massive bombings of the island, missile fire having razed a significant portion of Taipei and aerial combat that destroyed more than 300 Chinese fighters and 260 Taiwanese fighters, the first Chinese troops pushed the ground Taiwanese on September 26 late in the morning. The ground fighting was terrible. So far US naval forces, which were strengthening off Okinawa and the northern Philippines, had not come into action. On September 27, 2022, the confusion was at its height. At 10 pm, the London BBC announced in a special flash, based on information obtained in Hong Kong, that a first round of nuclear missiles, fired from four US submarines, had struck Beijing and Canton (Guangzhou) around 9:20 pm London time. The world was frozen with terror. The news was confirmed by the Pentagon twenty-one minutes later. There was no nuclear fire against Japan or the United States, but the invasion of Taiwan continued on 28 September. The Chinese government, which had been sheltered, still seemed to be in control of the country. All Chinese forces were mobilized. But on September 29, when the first reports showed at least 17 million deaths and serious injuries in Beijing and Canton, spontaneous demonstrations took place in major Chinese cities that had not been affected by nuclear fire. On the one hand, hundreds of thousands of Chinese nationalists demanded that Japan and California be razed.
On the other hand, tens of millions of Chinese demanded the end of the Communist Party’s power. In August 2022, the deployment of three Dica in Da Nang and Vinh had shown that Southeast Asia could no longer stand up to Chinese imperialism, which had reached a high level since 2020 in the South China Sea. During the US strike on 27 September, the naval forces of the last allies of the United States – France, the United Kingdom, Japan and Australia – crossed within 150 miles of the Chinese coast. China, aware of the maritime power of the United States and its last allies, and the quiet support given by Russia to these countries, had not responded to US nuclear fire, because it understood that the implementation of state of maximum alertness of US and Russian nuclear forces left him no chance of survival in case of counter-attack on the United States or Japan. Despite the shooting of crowds by the Chinese army and militia that killed more than 30,000 people in the early days of October 2022, demonstrations against the power of the single party brought together 80 million Chinese on October 14 2022. A group of “modernist democrats”, encouraged by the events, took power on October 26, 2022, by imprisoning the CCP’s old guard. Xi committed suicide or was committed suicide at the time of his arrest. After more than a month of unrest, a new Political Bureau was set up by the CCP on December 4, 2022. Meanwhile, the Chinese army had taken full control of Taiwan after fighting and bombardment over the past year. 1.2 million dead. Russia had warned the Americans that it would not tolerate a new nuclear salvo against China. The renewal of Chinese political power and the Manila talks of December 2022 and January 2023 led the United States and the international community to recognize the sovereignty of Shanghai, China’s new capital, on Taiwan while China renounced its claims. on the islets of the South China Sea. A border, accepted by all parties, was agreed between China, India, Nepal and Pakistan. India and Pakistan agreed to give up nuclear weapons while Chinese forces were limited to 120 nuclear warheads.
In this last scenario, the darkest, Trump ended up disgusting the last allies of the United States to support them. After the nuclear attack of September 27, 2022, China, strong of the strategic isolation of the United States following the aggressive policy carried out by them against their allies in 2018-2021, decided to replicate and razed the big cities of the Japan, California and Washington State. Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle were burned to the ground. The Chinese strikes killed 52 million people. The American retort killed 415 million people in China. Russia forced the two belligerents to stop. The United States decided to liquidate NATO, to denuclearize Europe while prohibiting Europeans from acquiring significant military capabilities. Europe was totally vassalized by the United States, which settled the Iranian question by joint nuclear bombardments with Israel, which killed 11 million people in Iran. Turkish President Recep Erdogan was assassinated in obscure conditions as Israel invaded Lebanon and Syria to liquidate Hezbollah and the Syrian regime. A time overwhelmed by Hezbollah counter-attacks, Israel lost more than 70,000 men and 310,000 civilians before using its nuclear weapons. Human losses in Lebanon and Syria exceeded 3.2 million casualties. Russia had taken advantage of events to regain military control of Ukraine and the Baltic states. Trump looked away. Belarus has re-united with Russia and Russian troops are on the border with Poland. Hundreds of thousands of people from Podlaskie, Lublin Voivodeship, Mazovia and St. Croix piled their belongings in cars and vans to retreat west of Warsaw, where they settled in precarious conditions. The wildest noises are constantly running in Warsaw over an impending Russian invasion. Trump just tweeted that if the Russians approached the Oder-Neisse line, it would trigger a new world war. Oder-Neisse! America has abandoned Poland! According to the latest information, 3.5 million Poles have fled to Germany and France. The climate agreement was abolished and the entire Europe of data was placed under the sole command of the Gafamn. The rest of the world outside China was subjected to the same regime. BATHXD were banned from Chinese territory. The proliferation of radicalized Islamists, whose number reached 760,000 in Western Europe at the end of 2022, keeps it in a climate of civil war.
About 370,000 of the most dangerous are locked up in camps known as “de-radicalization” which are a flagrant failure, because radicalization is increasing. The Sino-American duopoly is unstable and the German refusal to build a strong strategic hard core in Europe in 2018-2019 had many terminal consequences for the freedom and prosperity of Europeans, and in the first place for the Germans after the war. the break-up of the euro and competitive devaluations, which led to the suspension of the single market in the spring of 2020 and its very partial recovery in 2021. The unemployment rate has just exceeded 12.7% in Germany and is rising rapidly.
It must be admitted that the French government was not very clear in 2017-2018 in its proposals to Europe and did not explicitly formulate the request for the creation of a Core Carolingian Core whose key mission is to put its members back into the race. to excellence in the digital revolution. But the Germans, the Dutch, and most of the leaders of Northern Europe were particularly stubborn in this negotiation. Emmanuel Macron, humiliated by the Germans, had not been re-elected in May 2022. His populist replacement did not take gloves, from October 2022, against Germany, designated as the public enemy number 1 in Europe and as the undertaker of free and sovereign Europe.
Trump and Xi are sorcerer apprentices who are each the first enemy of their own country. Trump defeats the normative power and age-old alliances of the United States while diminishing the aura of the “indispensable nation.” Xi hardens the Chinese Communist Party’s grip on the population while initiating dangerous external adventures that contradict the teachings of Deng Xiaoping and the Chinese dynasties that built China. Trump invented national capitalism while Xi perfected the alliance between absolute capitalism and an increasingly totalitarian one-party, to the complete negation of all political freedom (see Chapter 2). The Sino-US rivalry in the digital revolution and the geostrategic domination of the world is total. Trump is absolutely wrong when he thinks that the loss of American industrial jobs is the result of unfair competition. It results mainly from the rise in labor productivity in the United States, the optimization strategies of American companies and the insufficient savings in this country, that the increase in the budget deficit resulting from its policy is only ‘aggravate ! Xi is absolutely wrong when he thinks of increasing China’s global influence through Chinese ownership of the South China Sea and investments on the Silk Road based on loans to countries that will have trouble repaying them. while developing a social credit system that will impose in China an absolute totalitarian system. Big Xi thus forbids China from acquiring the status of “indispensable nation” at the moment when Trump is doing everything to break the American “indispensable nation” status acquired in 1917 and consolidated for seven decades after the Second World War. Trump seems to think that the world began its birth and that all the leaders of America who preceded it since 1917 until January 2017 were “gogols”. Only he knows! A century of nothingness before the Light! But during this century of supposed nothingness, the United States became the first power in the world. They have cleverly drawn all the strings at their disposal so that they do not emerge from the United States of Europe, which could have competed with them before the Third Industrial Revolution but is no longer able to do so today, and have been able to promote the spread of their culture and way of life around the world. Today, because the world has changed, the United States must favor the emergence of a hard core Carolinian in Europe, despite the staggering mediocrity of the current leaders of Western Europe. What Trump does not even realize is that Europe and the world would not have accepted these lines of force structuring the world serving American interests if the United States had not emerged as the “indispensable nation” and a normative power certainly serving its interests, but also those of the free world. Similarly, without the status of “indispensable nation”, the rest of the world outside China would not have tolerated the emergence of the Gafamn and the four big Anglo-Saxon financial audit firms, and the appropriation of data, the friendly spying and skull stuffing that go with it. The rest of the world outside China would not have so easily followed the United States in their attempt to contain China, and US allies would not have accompanied them to Afghanistan in the first Iraq war as well as in Syria. And it is not even sure that the fifty US states would have stayed together if the United States had been ruled by Trump for a hundred years! By breaking the aura of the “indispensable nation,” Trump does not understand that he breaks the foundation of acceptance of American supremacy! And so, that the power of the United States will necessarily be challenged by dozens of decisions made separately or jointly by other countries, including and perhaps especially by the humiliated allies of the United States, aimed at breaking the lines visible or invisible forces of structuring the world that serve as a foundation for the power of America. The power of America is not measured by its production of coal and steel – it is an archaic vision – but by the vitality of its economy and the strength of its alliances. All is not lost for the United States yet, because they are very lucky. Bathed in multilateralism under the enlightened command of the United States, their allies survive the fall of Rome. The other eleven TPP (Trans-Pacific Commercial Treaty) countries, outside the United States – which Trump has withdrawn from the treaty – do not want to give up the strategic gains of the treaty and signed a new agreement in March 2018 under the name of Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).This agreement takes up most of the TPP. It can not be excluded that the US economic and military establishment has quietly encouraged the conclusion of the CPPP in the hope that a future US President will sign it … So if Trump is not re-elected in 2020, this treaty, essential on the strategic plan for the containment of China, may be signed by a new president who understands the stakes. At the same time, the European Union and Japan signed an agreement on 17 July 2018 creating the largest free trade area in the world, with 650 million inhabitants before Brexit and nearly 600 million after. This zone produces a quarter of world GDP. The European and Japanese parliaments have yet to ratify the text, which provides that 85% of EU agri-food products will be able to enter Japan without duty. The agreement facilitates the provision of European services in Japan and the opening of public procurement markets to 48 European companies in forty-eight major Japanese cities. The Japanese are getting better access to the European car market. These agreements show that America’s allies continue to practice the Latin of free trade and international cooperation in the service of multilateralism based on the rule of law despite the demise of American Rome. If a new American president, elected in 2020, expresses himself again in international Latin, Rome may be back in Rome. Thanks to America’s secular allies, Trump, who ridicules the indispensable nation, has not yet broken the foundation of American power. But he will succeed in a second term. Only the emergence of a hard core of European nations, determined to prevail in the New Industrial Revolution of Entrepreneurial Economy, can contribute to easing the competition between China and the United States for world leadership, while preserving an open multilateral world based on the French and American Revolutions of the 1780s. This hard core Carolinian can be the key player in the creation of the alliance of free nations. The victory in the strategic fight between the United States and China will depend on the alliances that they will have or not to constitute. Trump is the divider of the free nations, the one who strikes his allies and negotiates with his enemies. But many voices rise in the United States against its policy of demolishing America’s secular alliances. Can the intelligence of events, the eventual return of Rome to Rome and a miraculously acquired determination of Europeans prevent the Third World War? Answer September 27, 2022.